THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN 2021 - 2024

Ebrahim Raisi

This (outgoing administration) is like a goalkeeper who lets in 17 goals… and then says without me it would have been 30 goals. Raisi on Rouhani

Rouhani's  erstwhile "moderation" ended with the once wildly-popular president becoming the least popular ever. It was time for a hard-liner once more. Step up the losing candidate in the 2017 election, Ebrahim Raisi, a cleric and favourite of the Supreme Leader and currently the chief of the national judiciary - a judge with an unchallengeable record for repressing dissent, and imposing death sentences. He won Iran’s 2021 presidential election with 62 percent of the vote, although on a 48% turnout - the lowest in a presidential election since 1979, largely because only hard-liners were allowed to stand.

Khamenei with Raisi

Background

Born in 1960 to a clerical family he grew up in Mashhad. As a 19-year-old, he supported the 1979 revolution. He studied religion in Qom, then Islamic law in Tehran, earning a doctorate. The black turban marks his descent from the family of the Prophet.

As a lawyer, he specialised in prosecution, and was appointed Tehran's deputy prosecutor- general when only 25. In 1988 he was the youngest of the Tehran "Death Commission" which authorised the executions of all prisoners deemed unsupportive of the regime. His zeal saw him promoted further, to deputy head of the judiciary in 2004, and prosecutor-general in 2014. He consistently backed brutal suppression of protest and imprisonment of protesters.

President - in power

Raisi's presidency actually changed very little in Iranian domestic or foreign policy. The change was more one of style and optics - for example Rouhani’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, who spoke fluent English and had studied in the US, was replaced by locally-educated Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who spoke fluent Arabic, but poor English.

Domestic Events:

Economic Challenges:

  • Inflation and Currency Crisis: Iran faced high inflation, economic stagnation, and a significant devaluation of the rial, due mainly to ongoing international sanctions. but made worse by economic mismanagement, corruption and inefficiency..
  • Rising Unemployment: Despite government promises to create more jobs, unemployment remained a major challenge, affecting mainly the youth population.
  • Subsidy Reforms: The Raisi administration attempted to reform subsidies on basic goods like bread, fuel, and medicine, leading to public discontent and protests due to the increased cost of living. Bread prices, for example. rose by 80% in 2021.

Protests and Civil Unrest:

  • Mahsa Amini Protests (2022): The death of Mahsa Amini in police custody sparked nationwide protests against the strict enforcement of the mandatory hijab law and broader human rights abuses. The protests quickly evolved into demands for greater freedoms, challenging the regime's authority. The chants were " Women, Life, Freedom" and "Death to the Dictator" (Khamenei). The government responded with a crackdown on protesters, arrests, internet blackouts, and reports of human rights violations.
  • Labor and Teacher Protests: Teachers, workers, and pensioners organized demonstrations throughout Raisi's presidency, demanding better wages, labor rights, and an end to corruption. These movements underscored the socio-economic difficulties faced by many Iranians.

Human Rights Issues:

    Raisi's government faced criticism from both domestic and international actors for its harsh treatment of political dissenters, human rights activists, and journalists. The crackdown on protests, arrests of activists, and the use of capital punishment against political prisoners attracted widespread condemnation. 5,000 were killed and 22,000 detained in the protests at the killing of Mahsa Amini.

    On March 16, 2022 Iran finally released two British-Iranian detainees, Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, held since 2016, and Anoosheh Ashoori. They were both allowed to leave Iran following months of quiet diplomacy and Britain’s payment of a longstanding $524 million debt. Iran, under the monarchy, ordered tanks from a subsidiary of the British defense ministry. The payment went through but Britain canceled the order after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. “The repayment of the debt in parallel with the release of our nationals reflects steps taken by both U.K. and Iran to resolve issues of serious disagreement between our two countries,” said British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss.

COVID-19 Pandemic Response:

    The Raisi administration had to address the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Despite initial difficulties in vaccine procurement, Iran's government increased production domestically and imported vaccines from China. However, the response was criticized for delays and logistical issues, impacting public health and economic recovery.

Conservative Social Policies:

    Raisi’s presidency promoted conservative policies, emphasizing traditional Islamic values. Measures included stricter enforcement of hijab regulations, restrictions on women's rights, and tighter control over media and cultural activities.

    Hijab

Foreign Events:

Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) Negotiations:

  • Stalled Nuclear Talks: The Raisi administration engaged in indirect negotiations with the United States and other signatories of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to revive the nuclear deal, which had collapsed after the U.S. withdrawal in 2018. However, the talks stalled due to disagreements over the lifting of sanctions, Iran's uranium enrichment levels, and guarantees for Iran's economic interests.
  • Enrichment and Sanctions: Iran continued to enrich uranium beyond JCPOA limits, escalating tensions with the U.S. and European countries. This situation led to further sanctions and diplomatic isolation but also demonstrated Iran’s determination to assert its nuclear capabilities as leverage in negotiations.

Relations with Regional Powers:

  • Improved Ties with Saudi Arabia: A significant breakthrough occurred in March 2023, when Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to restore diplomatic relations after seven years, with mediation from China. This rapprochement marked a significant shift in the regional geopolitical landscape, reducing tensions in Yemen, Syria, and other areas of conflict.
  • Closer Ties with Russia and China: Under Raisi, Iran deepened its strategic and economic partnerships with Russia and China. This included finalizing a 25-year cooperation agreement with China and increasing military cooperation with Russia, especially during the Ukraine crisis, where Iran provided drones to Russia. Not only was Iran admitted to the Shanghai Cooperative Operation  (SCO, an organisation including China, Russia and Central and Southern Asia), it also, in Jan 2024, joined BRICS - the movement for economic cooperation between Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

Stance on Global Conflicts:

  • Support for Regional Allies: Iran continued to support regional allies and proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Assad government in Syria, and Houthi rebels in Yemen..
  • Position on Ukraine Conflict: Iran’s provision of military drones to Russia during the Ukraine conflict drew international scrutiny and criticism, impacting Iran's foreign relations with Western countries.
  • Military Iran's airforce had still not been upgraded since the days of the Shah (pre 1979). Defence concentrated on expanding expertise in missile and drone technology, and production of drones for export. The Shahed 136 drone was sold in great numbers to Russia for use in the war with Ukraine. The development and deployment of Shahed drones reflect Iran's strategy of asymmetric warfare. By investing in drone technology, Iran can project power across the region without relying on traditional manned aircraft, which can be expensive and vulnerable to advanced air defenses.

Relations with the West:

  • Sanctions and Diplomatic Isolation: The Raisi administration faced ongoing sanctions from the U.S. and Europe due to concerns over Iran’s nuclear program, human rights record, and regional activities. Despite efforts to engage diplomatically, Iran's relationship with Western countries remained strained.
  • Human Rights Condemnations: Iran's handling of domestic protests and human rights violations led to widespread international condemnation, with several countries imposing further sanctions on Iranian officials and entities.

Unexpected death

Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash on May 20, 2024, during a visit to Azerbaijan. The helicopter reportedly made a "hard landing" in foggy weather, causing it to crash and burn completely. Search and rescue operations faced difficulties due to poor weather conditions and rough terrain. The crash also resulted in the deaths of other officials, including Iran's foreign minister. The cause of the crash remains unclear.

 

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